What's going on in the South China Sea?

by Avaaz Team - posted 05 December 2012

China has laid claim to large stretches of water off its southern coast and is making increasingly aggressive moves to assert control over them. But some of China's neighbours also declare these waters as their own, and they're pushing back against what they say are illegal and provocative actions.

One look at a map of the South China Sea and you'll see why this energy-rich stretch of ocean is such a potential international flashpoint. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and several other countries all claim parts of it. Half the world's shipping cargo passes through these waters. Add in the fisheries resources, and you've got an area that a lot of people think is worth fighting over:

The Pacific pivot

As China's economic and diplomatic might has grown, the country has increasingly asserted itself over more of its nearby waters. These claims have fuelled tensions and suspicions among neighbours about China's intentions in the region: a south Asian summit last summer ended in acrimony when members were unable to agree on how to defuse the tensions or territorial claims.

Recently, China announced that police from a southern Chinese island province would stop and board foreign vessels violating what it claims as territorial waters. Now, Vietnam is setting up patrols to protect its fisheries in areas China claims as its own. And India says it's prepared to send its navy to the region to protect its oil interests there.

One aggravating factor is the recent US strategic "pivot" to the Pacific. The Obama administration has pledged to pay more attention – and to deploy more diplomatic, economic and military assets – to the region. Some smaller countries, such as Vietnam, welcome the move, seeing the US as a potential counterweight to Chinese power. China, as might be expected, is less enthused, suggesting the US is meddling in somebody else's neighbourhood.

Where will this end?

Sabres are rattling, yes, but so far, nobody seems eager to actually start a fight over the prized stretch of ocean. But with China and India both spending heavily to build up their military muscle, and the US asserting its presence a little more forcefully, each provocation and escalation is worth noting and defusing.
Trouble in the South China Sea could get out of hand very quickly, and while actual fighting seems a long way off, it's worth noting how quickly tensions and nationalistic fury can come to boil.